Sunday, March 15, 2009
Rate direction and currency direction
One needs to keep very clear in mind the idea of market direction. First of all, in the foreign extern market it is a mistake to say that the market is going up or down. In the stock market one can use this expression as stocks either go up or go down. However, in the FX market a rate as we said defines the parity of two currencies, hence at any time one goes up , so the other goes down. Therefore we can talk about the dollar going up or down but not about the market doing so. Another issue that often confuses people (even traders and bankers) is the difference between a currency moving up and its rate going up. We have to explain this in more detail as any misunderstanding can lead to painful surprises when trading in the real market. For simplicity reasons let us forget for the time being the bid/offer spread. So let us suppose that dollar/mark moves from 1.5000 to 1.5010. In this case the rate goes up whereas the value of the mark goes down (simply because the value of the dollar goes up). In other words one needs more marks at 1.5010 to exchange for one dollar.
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